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Usually, the National Football League's Head Coach of the Year trophy follows a straightforward formula. It often acts as a type of mea culpa. Sorry we misjudged your franchise in our preseason predictions.

Theoretically, it's a clear-cut path: the coach who oversaw the most dramatic improvement wins the prize. In reality, it sparks an yearly argument about preseason outlooks and whether we're truly rewarding superior leadership or just the greatest upset.

However the current competition is distinctly unique. The pool of nominees is unusually deep. It has been the year of resurgences. The NFL has been messy, with recent division champions fading and longtime strugglers improving in unison. In an typical year, a coach guiding the Denver Broncos to the top of the conference would make him the clear front-runner. But in this chaotic and fun year, he's up against five other elite coaches.

Here is how the ideal ballot could shake out.

5) The Chicago Bears Coach, His Team, Their Record

Voters for Coach of the Year voters are fascinated by QBs. They always have. A certain coach in 2017. Kevin Stefanski in 2020. A third in 2022. Should you transform a franchise QB, you're halfway to winning the award.

Ben Johnson hasn't just corrected Caleb Williams; he's unleashed him. Given a proper environment, the QB has been given the chance to display his rare ability. From Week 9, the Chicago offense rank number four in offensive Expected Points Added per play. That's not a hot streak – it's consistent performance. Under his guidance, the quarterback has become more confident, less reckless, and has eagerly submitted to the gameplan instead of freelancing. It is an attack constructed solely in Johnson's vision: a bully-ball run game, a consistent dose of play-action passes and a creative aerial game that creates wide receiver receivers consistently. Williams has taken advantage. And when easy reads haven't been available, he's been able to spin magic out of broken plays.

Johnson came to the Bears with a defined offensive philosophy. Virtually each decision – overhauling the offensive line, highlighting the pass-catchers, transforming Williams into a rhythm thrower – has worked. This is uncommon for a first-year skipper. And it's rarer still for a leader who entered the organization with the immense pressure Johnson did. For consecutive straight offseasons, he was the top candidate on the coaching carousel. However when it comes to hiring a leader, there are zero sure things. Remarkably, Johnson has lived up to the hype – and even exceeded them. He's proven not only to be a scheme dork but the kind of culture builder that can inject fresh energy into an franchise.

In a ordinary season, he would be the clear-cut favorite. Yet this is not a normal campaign!

The area where his candidacy runs slightly unstuck is on defense. The Bears presently sit in the bottom third in defensive efficiency. They are relying on turnovers, and turnovers are notoriously inconsistent. Coaches can focus on ball disruption, but no one can guarantee it. Johnson is on the list because the offense is legitimate. He's not higher because variance is doing an outsized share of the defense's heavy lifting. If not for a couple bounces of the ball, the Bears would be two victories behind. It's been an remarkable transformation, and the foundation is in place for sustained winning. However Johnson falls short in this ranking.

4) The Jacksonville Jaguars Coach, His Team, Their Record

Coen is in a comparable situation to his counterpart. He's another first-time leader who has orchestrated a dramatic turnaround. During the stretch run of the year, he has Trevor Lawrence playing the finest overall ball of his professional life. And he's also overseen the transformation of a defensive unit that now ranks number five in the NFL in EPA per play.

What's more notably, he has excelled at the leadership stuff, which wasn't a certainty after his early press conference appearances and some of his offseason decisions.

The coach took over Jacksonville with an exceptionally raw coaching staff. In contrast to other coaches, who packed their staff with the perfect coaching blend of youth and experience, Coen trusted newbies. From the head coach on down to assistants to position coaches, the Jags are filled with rookies. That type of approach is intriguing in theory, but often collapses in reality – with other teams are a cautionary tale – because everyone is learning a their job in real-time. Yet he has pulled everyone and everything into sync.

Following an initial hot beginning, there was a chance that the campaign would veer off the rails. A midseason collapse had the Jags stumbling once more. That's typically when coaches panic and change too much. He did not. Instead, he streamlined things. Jacksonville stopped pursuing explosive plays and started seeking consistent ones. Coen recentered the attack around his playmakers and the running game, and asked his QB to use his legs more often.

The outcomes are obvious. The Jaguars have won multiple games consecutively and will be the AFC's No 3 playoff seed. He receives the slightest deduction in the standings because he inherited a skilled team, but he has proven he can maximize that roster.

3) The Seattle Seahawks Coach, Seattle Seahawks, 13-3

Each Coach of the Year narrative has a pivotal moment. For Mike Macdonald, it was his QB choice.

Parting ways from a veteran, signing a different signal-caller and partnering him with an innovative play-caller could have ended the campaign in October. Instead, it shaped it. By the mid point of the season, the acquisition was an Most Valuable Player front-runner. He has fallen away since that time, slipping to a lower rank in efficiency per pass attempt over the second half of the season, placing him only a single spot ahead of other QBs.

Still